DATE: 2 Nov. 2004
TO: Various Democratic Activists (in several e-mailings on Election Night)
SUBJECT: The Bush League’s Last Hurrah
As of 6:00 p.m. PST ...
CNN.COM gives these results for over 11,000 voters in the CNN exit polls NATIONWIDE ...
46% were Male, who went 51 to 47 for Bush — 2 points worse for Bush than in 2000.
54% were Female, who went 54 to 45 for Kerry — 2 points better than Gore in 2000.
When you do the math (a sex-weighted average), that’s ...
51% Kerry
48% Bush
1% Nader (for both sexes)
That SHOULD be the final result, when all the precincts report nationwide (unless they’re continuing to poll in states with the polls still open, but a sample of 11,000 is pretty darn big and hard to change at this late hour).
We’ll see ...
[Later that evening]
It’s about 7:30 p.m. PST ...
The map is mostly red. Bush has about 80 more electoral votes than Kerry.
The Democrats on TV look a little worried; the Republicans, a bit cocky.
But this is Geo. W. Bush’s Last Hurrah.
NOTHING so far has been a surprise. The only thing close has been NJ staying blue, despite recent fears.
NOTHING so far is out of line with the Zogby predictions.
MOREOVER the CNN Exit Poll NATIONWIDE — which (as far as I know) is AHEAD of the state-by-state reports — is staying pretty darn constant, pretty much the same as an hour and a half ago: When you do the math (sex-weighted average, as before) it’s still ...
51% Kerry
48% Bush
1% Nader
AND IN FACT the actual popular vote is approaching that: With about one-sixth (16%) of the precincts reporting, Bush had a 7-point lead (53 to 46); with about one-third reporting, that lead was cut to 4 (52 to 48). At that rate, in an hour or two, with about one-half to two-thirds of the precincts reporting, the lead should change ... FOR GOOD.
To me, that means this particular moment in history should indeed be ...
THE BUSH LEAGUE’S LAST HURRAH.
We’ll see... [This real-time reporting of the exit poll results became the basis for later analysis, by me and by professional statisticians, who came to challenge the reported results, so out of line with the exit poll results, and who later refuted the rebuttals to their challenges by the exit polling companies.]
Doug
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