The following actually incorporates sound
reasoning from some seismic theories that had previously been
reported as having successfully predicted certain earthquakes
or, in hindsight, might have predicted certain other
earthquakes...
Although I am a biologist and not a geologist -- more at home among the lowly
"bugs" than the mighty
rocks -- I nonetheless feel compelled to submit a dissenting,
well-reasoned earthquake prediction for the record.
Like the current official forecast, I, too, have
been telling others that the "Big One" on the San Andreas
Fault will probably occur near San Bernardino -- about halfway
between the current crop of quakes near Landers/Big Bear and the
other significant quakes in recent years, in and around
Whittier, Upland, and Sierra Madre.
However, given the flurry of unusual seismic
activity around Barstow, as reported in the Times, and
the significant quake near Mojave shortly after the Landers/Big
Bear quakes, I have revised my estimate: Using the faults
northwest from Landers/Big Bear through Barstow as one side of a
triangle; the intersecting fault southwest through Mojave as
another; and the San Andreas Fault as the third side, I
expect the "Big One" to occur near Wrightwood
(significantly closer to the L.A. Basin than the officially
predicted "ground zero") -- a historically seismically
active area at approximately the midpoint of this "leg" of
the San Andreas Fault.
The series of large quakes in recent years all
seem to radiate from this central point; and according to
reports in the Times, such a concentric pattern is the
most reliable predictor, as preceded the devastating Coalinga
quake. One would expect the magnitude to exceed that of the
precursor quakes (7.5 maximum, at Landers); and the high
likelihood of occurrence within the next 5 years according to
the official prediction seems reasonable, given recent events.
We have been warned!
Of course, I may just have rocks in my head.
After all, I was the guy who wrote in almost ten years ago -- before our record drought of 7 years and counting
-- to warn
that the Greenhouse Effect (not a chic topic back then) might be
affecting our climate. God only knows. Back to the "bugs"!
A little over a year later, the large Northridge
quake hit. Although it was not "The Big One", it further
refined my prediction: The ground-shaking effects of large
quakes, including that in Northridge, often spread out
asymmetrically, in a four-lobed pattern, which some
seismologists nickname "the butterfly" (That concentric
pattern mentioned above is sometimes called "The Moghi
Donut", after the Japanese seismologist who first described
it); and subsequent large quakes are often epicentered within
one or another of the four "wings of the butterfly" -- indeed, Northridge was in one of the
"wings" from the Sylmar
quake, about 20 years earlier. Applying that pattern for
predictive effect, one of the four "wings" of the Northridge "butterfly" intersected the San Andreas Fault in or around
the town of Pear Blossom, a bit west of Wrightwood -- my
refined prediction for the epicenter of "The Big
One"...sometime in the near future (although in geologic time,
that may well be decades, even though we're "overdue" for
such an event). I don't panic, but I do check and refresh my
emergency supplies annually and encourage others to do likewise.