DEMOCRACY:
Government & Politics | October 17, 2004
SIR
ROBIN
OF
LOXLEY
&
THE
ONE-PERCENT
SOLUTION
An
E-Mail to Democratic Activists
...let's crunch the numbers:
Here's where it gets really interesting and even very promising,
despite first impressions.
The newest Time Magazine
poll shows Bush ahead by two percentage points among likely
voters...
The newest Newsweek poll
shows Bush ahead by two among all voters but by six among likely
voters...
And that newest Zogby poll
showed Bush ahead by four among likely voters -- the average of
the two polls above -- with six percent undecided...
Historically (I wish I
remembered the source for this but it was reliable), undecideds
ultimately back the challenger by two-to-one, which would be
another four for Kerry, two for Bush -- a net gain of two for
Kerry, still leaving him two percentage points behind.
But here's the kicker, only one
percent of likely voters need to change their mind for a
two-point switch.
So who ARE these people who
constitute "The One Percent Solution"? That's the best
part: I believe we know them perfectly. I believe they are
EXACTLY at the middle of all the surveys of the American public.
That Time article, cited above, has a great synopsis of
what "the people" -- as typified by our glorious one
percent -- like in each candidate (I think that's a good answer
to our question..."What the heck do the people want?"
They certainly have a hard time making up their mind!).
Moreover, from a statistical
and political standpoint, I believe appealing to this
"political center of gravity" is the way least likely
to turn off any other voters. Of course, "pandering to the
least common denominator" does risk alienating our base,
which we need to continue to cultivate; but if our base isn't
energized and mobilized by now -- in this race of races -- then
they never will be...and judging by my personal contacts, that
includes the Greens voting Democratic, too -- they just want
Bush out and will be rightfully mad at us if we don't deliver.
It's like in Sherwood Forest.
The Sheriff of Nottingham (or one of his henchmen) shot an arrow
right into the bull's eye of a target, and everyone thought the
competition was over. Then along came Robin Hood, who shot his
arrow true, splitting the shaft of the other arrow right down
the middle. I think we could learn a lot from Sir Robin of
Loxley.
In a nutshell, if we reassure
and win over that one-percent right down the middle; if we get
out the vote, particularly the record number of new voters (57%
to 36% Democratic, according to that Newsweek poll),
particularly in the swing states, of course; and if Kerry and
Edwards keep campaigning like there's no tomorrow (One piece of
advice: Kerry does much better at a lectern or one-on-one, as in
the debates, than playing to a crowd on stage; heck, even most
of the clips I've seen of Bush have him at a lectern), then
there really is hope we can pull this off. America's depending
on us (whether they realize it or not).
I'll keep "preaching"
to the middle (This very morning I believe I converted an
independent, a good guy worried about being downsized during a
takeover), as well as "to the choir".
Keep up the good -- Democratic
-- work...
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