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DEMOCRACY: Government & Politics | Election Night (Nov. 2), 2004


E-Mails to Democratic Activists,

Cited Later in "Do the Math: Something Stinks"

As of 6:00 PM PST...

CNN.COM gives these results for over 11,000 voters in the CNN exit polls NATIONWIDE...

46% were Male, who went 51 to 47 for Bush -- 2 points worse for Bush than in 2000.

54% were Female, who went 54 to 45 for Kerry -- 2 points better than Gore in 2000.

When you do the math (a sex-weighted average), that's...

51% Kerry

48% Bush

1% Nader (for both sexes)

That SHOULD be the final result, when all the precincts report nationwide (unless they're continuing to poll in states with the polls still open, but a sample of 11,000 is pretty darn big and hard to change at this late hour).

We'll see...

Later that evening...

It's about 7:30 PM PST...

The map is mostly red. Bush has about 80 more electoral votes than Kerry.

The Democrats on TV look a little worried; the Republicans, a bit cocky.

But this is Geo. W. Bush's Last Hurrah.

NOTHING so far has been a surprise. The only thing close has been NJ staying blue, despite recent fears.

NOTHING so far is out of line with the Zogby predictions.

MOREOVER the CNN Exit Poll NATIONWIDE -- which (as far as I know) is AHEAD of the state by state reports -- is staying pretty darn constant, pretty much the same as an hour and a half ago: When you do the math (sex-weighted average, as before) it's still...

51% Kerry

48% Bush

1% Nader

AND IN FACT the actual popular vote is approaching that: With about one-sixth (16%) of the precincts reporting, Bush had a 7-point lead (53 to 46); with about one-third reporting, that lead was cut to 4 (52 to 48). At that rate, in an hour or two, with about one-half to two-thirds of the precincts reporting, the lead should change...FOR GOOD.

To me, that means this particular moment in history should indeed be...


We'll see...

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